In early November, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "China to phase out incandescent road map" to the market known as the LED lighting revolution into a cardiac stimulant. Sharp decline in the face of the backlight market, the industrial development of chaos, LED general lighting industry can become the "savior"?
Grim reality of a better future
In this year s ELEXCON on, LED is undoubtedly one of the hotspots. "High-end LED lighting market less affected by the economic downturn, high-end market segment in the pursuit of quality lighting giant more, so they will invest in the use of high-end materials products, and those low-end packaging market in the enterprise, by more pronounced economic downturn affecting the future, the company s strategic focus is one of the LED market. "Yi Technologies AG, a large vice president Chen Zhengming in the exhibition" China Electronics News "reporter, showing confidence in the market for LED lighting . The world s second largest manufacturer of SMD thick film chip resistors, LED mass production this year by the official blew the ceramic package substrate to enter the LED market, the high-end horn. China Electronics (CEC) Solomon Systech s director of business operations areas Wei Jiang also held the same view, he believes the current LED lighting business closures just downstream market shuffling process, that are not core competencies of the low-end manufacturing business will certainly be eliminated, and in the high-power LED lighting driver IC hard Systech is optimistic about the company s future growth.
"LED is facing great potential prospects, but there have been some impact on the healthy development of the difficult issues." By the China Electronic Information Industry Net, China Electronic Appliance Corporation co-sponsored the 2011 China (Shanghai) LED industry healthy development of the Forum, Xiamen Hualian Electronics Co., Ltd. Fan Yu bowl laments.
LED luminous efficiency of 150lm / w (lm / W), LED lamp luminous efficiency 120lm / w, accounting for 30% of the lighting market, the annual saving 100 billion kwh, reduce carbon emissions 98.99 million tons; in 2020 accounted for 50% of the lighting LED lamps market, the annual saving 340 billion kwh, equivalent to four Three Gorges Hydropower Station. However, the reality is not so ideal. Fan Yu bowl, said that China s industrial power LED light effect in the 100 ~ 110lm / w level, LED lamps lighting effect in the whole 80 ~ 85lm / w between; LED lighting and traditional lighting price gap is also larger, the cost of a LED lighting to promote the stumbling block; In addition, the first half of 2011 China s LED bulbs output more than 60 million, more than 76% of global production in China of LED bulbs, LED bulbs export-oriented, the proportion of exports accounted for more than 82%, 60 million in Only 6 million in domestic use, from 30% of the lighting market share, there are many way to go.
It is worth emphasizing that, despite experiencing a high brightness LED s start with the start-up stage to the "Eleventh Five" China s LED industry has begun to take shape, and entered a period of rapid development, but in the lucrative industry chain areas, China is still in short board. Leaving aside the lack of critical equipment at home, even if a foreign company to purchase key equipment, but in the upstream production techniques still have a long way to go. "Judging from the current level of technology and the overall industry trends, our country is still in the epitaxial chip technology early stage of development, the product is still middle and low, so the material improvement, photoelectric conversion efficiency, cost control and production and technological progress will continue in the future faced with opportunities and challenges. "China Electric Division No. 13, said Professor Zhang Wansheng.
Overcapacity issue
LED industry this year on over-investment, excess capacity, endless debate, and is known as the city of Shenzhen, China LED of an LED manufacturers appear more closures of excess capacity is further enlarged the debate. However, the reporter saw that, while an expert to talk about over-investment, excess capacity, while the company heavily smack to the LED industry, especially the upstream industry, the industry has become restless.
Since last year, backlighting and general lighting for the rapid development of projections were too optimistic, resulting in excessive investment in the upstream LED. Sapphire substrate most serious over-investment: manufacturers (including those under construction) of 41, a total of 44.7 billion yuan investment, production capacity of approximately 330 million / year, far greater than the actual demand; LED epitaxial silicon over-investment, followed by Currently there are 85 factories, 96 factories under construction, with a total investment of 183.5 billion yuan. MOCVD for the 4519 Master Plan sets the current practice with 543 units, January to July 2011 increased more than 200, 2012 China s LED chip production capacity of 10 times in 2010. Sapphire substrate from the beginning of $ 35 / piece to the current $ 13 – $ 15 / piece, an average reduction 50%; LED chip average price reduction of 25%, the maximum decrease of 42%.
However, falling prices and business investment is not pouring cold enthusiasm, this year described as "sapphire of the Year" in October of this year alone, sapphire substrates have two production industry and the investment astonishing: October 28, the energy giant GCL Sapphire project was formally put into operation, a $ 300 million. October 26, Elton optical one hundred kg level LED sapphire crystal project has officially started production, the goal is to produce 30 million LED sapphire substrate. The swimming season, general manager, said the total investment of 2.2 billion. In addition, LED industry, the other three optical giant will invest 25 billion yuan in Fujian Quanzhou (Lake head) optical sapphire substrate Industrial Park to build a factory, and strive to 2 years to complete. Amethyst 29-billion in proposed optical Xinjiang Production and sapphire crystals.
Excess capacity for investment risk, says that corporate executives do in fact have "a pretty good idea." Elton optical shareholders Guiyang Industrial Investment Group Chairman Xu Hao in the "China Electronics News" reporter, says that although the European debt crisis and rising domestic prices, higher labor costs, RMB appreciation to the many industries had a negative impact, but the next 2 to 3 years or LED lighting will be rapid development, especially high-end lighting market, companies are now on stream just for the next 2 to 3 years to prepare to seize market opportunities rising demand . In addition, providers GTAT Sapphire Dan Changjing furnace Sapphire vice president, general manager of business equipment and raw materials CherylDiuguid that the decline in prices can only show a small size substrate chip oversupply, large size of the substrate film is still highly profitable, prices are also higher. For example, the current four inches sapphire films offer about $ 50. And domestic investment in these sapphires were the main goal is focused on four-inch and above large-size substrate.
Rational development of the flow
Maturity of technology, decided to expand the market situation, regardless of whether the investment is the excess heat capacity, the industry should be a rational treatment of the development of LED industry, companies must also follow market opportunities and actively push forward step by step. Fan Yu said bowl for the short and long term planning, business investment must not blindly follow the trend, not a single pursuit of land and other benefits, go astray, causing investment risks, seize the moment and lay the foundation for the future, prevent risks before steadily line, is the better choice.
In addition, government policy, industry experts have said that the country should invest in health of the macro-guidance, the national research organizations, industry-specific evaluation, the actual work done fine form at the national level response and landing; guide get rid of the existing "designated Xinjiang autonomy", does not consider global investment patterns tend to be the whole country, focus and guide the development.
Government should have the courage to face those that have occurred can not circumvent the problem, after a round of investment, it should be a rational analysis and evaluation of the investigation, focused. For in fact do not have the technology, human resources are not available, management does not have, and only land plants, only the money of the company, to research, based on the guide adjustment, integration gives way to avoid waste of resources. For low-level redundant construction, should also be based on the research, strengthen macro guidance of state government and industry, or merger, or dismount, or determined to improve their level of access to high quality state of development. For resources companies should focus on fostering the development, the formation of the national backbone, the backbone of the industry, support forward, really have to build China s own international competitiveness "carrier group" to seize the opportunity to meet the challenge.